CANADA-US SPAT GENERATES HEAT BUT SLOW BURN IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS MORE CONCERNING
This week attention has been focused on the latest trade spat between the US and Canada as negotiations to avoid new US tariffs collapsed.
Read The Full ArticleBONDS SELL OFF WHILE FUND MANAGERS KEEP FAITH IN EQUITIES
This week the sixty-day “ceasefire” between Washington and Tehran expired with talks stalled and manners abandoned.
Read The Full ArticleA GOLDEN AGE FOR ALL, AVAILABLE ON GENEROUS TERMS OF CREDIT
This week the money kept flowing into AI. The recovery from July’s chip-stock sell-off ran into a second week and the S&P 500 set fresh records.
Read The Full ArticleCUTTING THE US OUT OF NEGOTIATIONS MAKES SHORT TERM SENSE BUT LONG-TERM PROBLEMS REMAIN
This week markets were calmed by the prospect of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The price of oil fell and UK gilt yields dropped slightly as the prospect of higher inflation faded.
Read The Full ArticleTEETHING TROUBLES FOR FED’S NEW COMMUNICATION STYLE FUELS BOND VOLATILITY
This week US government bonds swung unexpectedly after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged.
Read The Full ArticleWAR IN THE PERSIAN GULF SPILLS OVER TO THE RED SEA SENDING OIL HIGHER
This week markets have reflected the two forces that have driven performance in 2026. A sharp escalation of fighting in the Middle East pushed the oil price above $100 for the first time in two months, leaving investors once again trying to work out what Donald Trump wants from the war.
Read The Full ArticleTHE IRAN WAR RESUMES, TO GENERAL INDIFFERENCE
This week’s US jobs report disappointed and cheered observers in almost equal measure. Only 57,000 new roles were created last month, far fewer than in May.
Read The Full ArticleSIGNS OF SLOWER HIRING IN THE US COOL FED RATE HIKE EXPECTATIONS
This week’s US jobs report disappointed and cheered observers in almost equal measure. Only 57,000 new roles were created last month, far fewer than in May.
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Summer Outlook
Inflation has continued to fall since the start of the year. However, the decline has been patchy and this, combined with relatively strong economic growth in the US and strong wage growth on both sides of the Atlantic, has caused markets to reassess their expectations for interest rate cuts.
Read The Full ArticleFALLING OIL PRICES HELP BONDS BUT INVESTORS APPEAR NERVOUS OF BIG TECH VALUATIONS
This week saw the price of oil return to its pre-conflict level as Brent crude hit $72 a barrel. The price is still above the $67 average seen in January and February, reflecting the run-up in the days before fighting began.
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