CUTTING THE US OUT OF NEGOTIATIONS MAKES SHORT TERM SENSE BUT LONG-TERM PROBLEMS REMAIN
This week markets were calmed by the prospect of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The price of oil fell and UK gilt yields dropped slightly as the prospect of higher inflation faded.
Read The Full ArticleTEETHING TROUBLES FOR FED’S NEW COMMUNICATION STYLE FUELS BOND VOLATILITY
This week US government bonds swung unexpectedly after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged.
Read The Full ArticleWAR IN THE PERSIAN GULF SPILLS OVER TO THE RED SEA SENDING OIL HIGHER
This week markets have reflected the two forces that have driven performance in 2026. A sharp escalation of fighting in the Middle East pushed the oil price above $100 for the first time in two months, leaving investors once again trying to work out what Donald Trump wants from the war.
Read The Full ArticleTHE IRAN WAR RESUMES, TO GENERAL INDIFFERENCE
This week’s US jobs report disappointed and cheered observers in almost equal measure. Only 57,000 new roles were created last month, far fewer than in May.
Read The Full ArticleSIGNS OF SLOWER HIRING IN THE US COOL FED RATE HIKE EXPECTATIONS
This week’s US jobs report disappointed and cheered observers in almost equal measure. Only 57,000 new roles were created last month, far fewer than in May.
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Summer Outlook
Inflation has continued to fall since the start of the year. However, the decline has been patchy and this, combined with relatively strong economic growth in the US and strong wage growth on both sides of the Atlantic, has caused markets to reassess their expectations for interest rate cuts.
Read The Full ArticleFALLING OIL PRICES HELP BONDS BUT INVESTORS APPEAR NERVOUS OF BIG TECH VALUATIONS
This week saw the price of oil return to its pre-conflict level as Brent crude hit $72 a barrel. The price is still above the $67 average seen in January and February, reflecting the run-up in the days before fighting began.
Read The Full ArticleEQUITY MARKETS WELCOME US ATTEMPTS TO DRAW A LINE UNDER MIDDLE EAST MISADVENTURE
This week Donald Trump finished his Iranian Taco. The US president clearly bit off more than he could chew and Trump has been looking for a way out since it became apparent that the only other real option was significant escalation.
Read The Full ArticleTHE GIANT SPACEX IPO WILL SET THE TONE FOR FURTHER AI SHARE ISSUES
This week sees SpaceX shares start trading in New York. The IPO was heavily oversubscribed and many investors will watch the first day’s trading closely, looking to secure a stake or to pocket a quick profit, depending on their view of the company’s valuation.
Read The Full ArticleTECH FIRMS GET SET TO TEST INVESTOR APPETITE FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
This week, Washington and Tehran moved closer to a deal that would extend the ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent slipping to $91 a barrel by Friday morning.
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